El Niño: The UN fears a new surge in global hunger

The world could be facing a new food crisis of unprecedented scale. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), an El Niño event of rarely seen intensity could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year.

The UN agency's forecasts are particularly worrying. Experts estimate an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño developing, with Pacific Ocean surface temperatures reaching levels unseen in over forty years. If this scenario materializes, it would be one of the most violent episodes recorded since 1950.

In concrete terms, the climate phenomenon could increase the number of people facing a food crisis in 45 vulnerable countries to 274 million, representing a 22% rise. By altering rainfall patterns globally, El Niño exacerbates droughts, delays monsoons, and causes flooding, jeopardizing harvests and the livelihoods of millions of families.

Southern Africa and Central America are among the most exposed regions. The WFP also anticipates significant consequences in East Africa, the Sahel, South America, the Caribbean, and South and Southeast Asia, where climate hazards risk causing lasting disruption to agricultural production.

“In the past, these events have already triggered large-scale famines,” warns Jean-Martin Bauer, director of the WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit. While global agricultural markets remain relatively well-supplied after the good harvests of 2025, the agency fears that international conflicts and climate-related production losses could lead to higher food prices in several regions.

Adding to this climate threat is another difficulty: the decline in international funding. Aid cuts from several donor countries limit the collection of data on food security, complicating the rapid detection of emerging crises and the implementation of targeted assistance.

Faced with this risk, the World Food Programme (WFP) is calling on governments and humanitarian organizations to act without delay. The agency has already strengthened its early response programs in 18 countries, with financial assistance and preventative measures designed to protect the most vulnerable populations before the effects of El Niño intensify.