From oil to critical minerals: How the IEA became the compass of energy geopolitics

For several decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) was primarily associated with oil markets. Created in the wake of the first oil crisis of the 1970s, its mission was to help industrialized countries cope with potential disruptions in oil supply. Fifty years later, its scope has broadened considerably. Its analyses now cover electricity, natural gas, renewable energy, electric vehicles, hydrogen, batteries, critical minerals, and greenhouse gas emissions. Governments, businesses, and investors closely follow its publications, which influence energy policies in many parts of the world.

The IEA was founded in 1974 within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a few months after the first oil embargo. Its headquarters are located in Paris, and the organization now has 32 member countries, in addition to 13 associate countries, including several major emerging economies such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Singapore, and Morocco. Together, these countries account for more than 80% of global energy consumption.

In its early days, the agency's primary mission was to coordinate its members' strategic oil reserves in order to respond to a potential disruption in supplies. Member states must therefore maintain stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports, a rule that remains one of the cornerstones of energy security for member countries.

The global energy landscape has, however, undergone profound transformation. The rise of renewable energies, the fight against climate change, tensions in gas markets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the development of artificial intelligence have gradually shifted the center of gravity of the IEA's analyses.

Among its most widely followed publications is the World Energy Outlook , published annually since 1977. This report presents several scenarios for the evolution of global energy demand up to the middle of the century, based on policies already implemented, climate commitments announced by states, and trajectories compatible with carbon neutrality. Governments, oil companies, electricity producers, and investors make extensive use of these projections to guide their decisions.

The figures published by the agency often serve as a benchmark in international debates. In its World Energy Investment 2025 report , the IEA estimates that global investments in the energy sector should reach $3.3 trillion in 2025. For the first time, nearly $2.2 trillion, or about two-thirds of this total, would be devoted to technologies related to the energy transition, including renewable energy, electricity grids, storage, batteries, nuclear power, and electric vehicles. Investments in oil, gas, and coal would represent approximately $1.1 trillion.

The agency has also become a benchmark in electricity markets. In its report published in February 2025, it forecasts an increase in global demand of nearly 4% per year between 2025 and 2027, driven by the combined effects of industrialization, electrification of energy uses, the growth of data centers, and the development of artificial intelligence. According to the IEA, data centers alone could account for a growing share of this additional consumption in the coming years.

Critical minerals now occupy an equally strategic place in its work. Batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles require significant quantities of lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, and graphite. In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 study , the IEA highlights that lithium demand has more than tripled between 2017 and 2024, while demand for nickel for batteries continues to grow rapidly. These developments are fueling new industrial strategies in several resource-rich African countries.

African economies are increasingly featured in the agency's analyses. Its Africa Energy Outlook 2022 report , which remains the benchmark publication on the continent, reminds us that nearly 600 million Africans still lack access to electricity. The IEA also estimates that Africa accounts for only about 3% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, despite being home to nearly 20% of the world's population. This data informs discussions on financing the energy transition and the investment needs for African electricity grids.

Governments regularly rely on this research to develop their national strategies. Demand projections, energy price scenarios, and security of supply analyses are used to prepare investment plans, define industrial policies, and adapt energy infrastructure. Investors also follow these publications, as they help anticipate the sectors likely to experience the strongest growth over the coming decades.

The IEA's influence, therefore, does not rest on regulatory power. The organization sets neither oil prices nor national energy policies. Its credibility stems from the quality of its databases, its economic modeling capabilities, and the expertise employed in its analyses. In a sector where investment decisions often amount to billions of dollars and have repercussions lasting for decades, having internationally recognized projections is a considerable advantage.

The evolution of the International Energy Agency ultimately reflects that of the global energy system. Created to respond to oil crises, it has become one of the main references on all the transformations that are reshaping energy production, consumption and financing on a global scale.