Americans are expected to spend more than $1 trillion on the holidays, a first

Americans' holiday spending, which takes place between November 1 and December 31, is expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time thanks to an acceleration in the pace of growth, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said Thursday.

"Throughout 2026, we continued to be very impressed by the resilience of consumers who continued to spend and fuel our economy, and we expect this to continue through the holiday season," said Matthew Shay, president of the NRF, during a presentation to journalists.

This, he stressed, comes as "households continue to evolve in a context of persistent inflation and uneven confidence in the economy."

This situation "has actually been going on for many years, particularly at the end of the year for the festive season, and we are confident that this pattern" will be repeated this year.

Under these circumstances, the NRF anticipated that holiday sales (excluding automobiles, fuels, restaurants) would reach a record $1.013 trillion, a 4.2% increase year over year.

If this prediction were to materialize, it would represent an acceleration of sales since they had increased by 3.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year.

These forecasts "suggest another very strong season, once again supported by the forgotten heroes of our economy: resilient consumers," Mr. Shay insisted.

For his part, NRF chief economist Mark Mathews noted that retail spending had been "consistently solid this year".

"We expect some of this momentum to continue into November and December," he estimated.

According to him, part of the anticipated growth rate stems from the effects of inflation in the United States. Inflation continued its acceleration in September (+3.7% year-on-year), still largely driven by energy prices due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

"Consumers are very attentive to value for money at the moment, they are very concerned about affordable (products)," noted Mr. Mathews, acknowledging that the situation would "vary very significantly" depending on income levels.

Especially in the context of soaring fuel prices since the launch of the war against Iran at the end of February, which will also have an impact on the cost of freight, particularly for imports of electronic equipment, toys, etc.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to become even more important, after the "real leap" recorded at the end of 2025.

"I think this will be even more present this year," noted Matthew Shay, referring to the deployment of new AI tools and the proliferation of agents.

AFP