Senate elections in France: the National Rally makes a strong showing in the upper house

The National Rally has made a big move: by forming a parliamentary group in the Senate for the first time on Sunday, the Le Pen party is disrupting the historical dominance of the right, a significant success in the midst of the presidential campaign.

The senatorial elections were also marked by the victory of an elected representative from La France Insoumise.

Alpes-Maritimes, Bouches-du-Rhône, Var, Vaucluse... With at least 14 seats won by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's party or their allies in the Union of the Right for the Republic (UDR), the RN has fulfilled its objective even before the official announcement of the last results of the evening.

"For the first time in its history, the National Rally will form a group in the Senate with its allies from the UDR of President Eric Ciotti," wrote Jordan Bardella on X.

"This is a historic victory and a major step forward," Marine Le Pen continued on the same social network, hailing a "general breakthrough" which confirms "the acceleration of the National Rally's establishment throughout the territory."

A symbolic march, but not only that: it will mean increased speaking time, additional resources... and above all, valuable support for Marine Le Pen's presidential campaign. "It's a real boost for this presidential campaign," said Vice-President Sébastien Chenu.

Even if it takes a back seat in the shadow of 2027, this indirect election, reflecting the municipal elections, will be carefully analyzed by the party headquarters, seven months before the presidential election.

Two observations stand out in particular: the local presence of the RN is clearly progressing, with scores sometimes five times higher than in the last election in 2020; that of La France insoumise remains weak, despite the election of the first Insoumis elected official in the Rhône.

While many predicted his defeat, LFI MP Gabriel Amard, who is also Jean-Luc Mélenchon's son-in-law, caused a surprise. "Gabriel Amard is bringing us into the Senate, despite all attempts to block us. A good omen for 2027," the movement's leader declared on X.

However, the Insoumis should be more numerous in the upper house in 2029, with the renewal of senators from Île-de-France and the North.

- Erosion on the right?

The Republicans' hold on the chamber, with their centrist allies, is not disrupted by this renewal of 178 seats out of 348, nor is the likely re-election of Gérard Larcher (LR) to the presidency of the institution, scheduled for Thursday.

But the erosion of LR (131 seats before the vote), which could lose around ten seats pending the final counts, reveals a certain weakening, while Bruno Retailleau - easily re-elected in Vendée - hopes to outmaneuver the candidates of the central bloc in view of the presidential election.

"There will be no porosity. We will stay on our line," insisted the head of the LR group, Mathieu Darnaud, comfortably re-elected in Ardèche.

As expected, the Republicans suffered in the Mediterranean region. The UDR of Nice's new mayor Eric Ciotti won two seats in the Alpes-Maritimes, while the RN took two in the Var and two more in the Bouches-du-Rhône, among other territories they conquered.

National Rally MP Edwige Diaz succeeded in her bid in Gironde and will move from the National Assembly to the Luxembourg Palace. However, the bid failed for Marie-Caroline Le Pen, sister of Marine Le Pen, who was predictably defeated in Sarthe.

On the left, the almost systematic presence of LFI lists competing with other political formations has created a certain dispersion of votes, as among French citizens living abroad.

The Socialist Party (65 seats before the election) lost some ground, for example in the Creuse department, but made some gains, notably in the Doubs and Hérault departments. The final results will determine whether the Socialist Party remains the second-largest force in the Senate, ahead of the Centrist Union (59 seats).

As for the Greens, they lost a seat in Gironde and Alsace, a logical consequence of the shift in Bordeaux and Strasbourg in the municipal elections.

Horizons, represented by the Independents group (20 members), can legitimately believe in some gains, not negligible for the momentum of Edouard Philippe on the road to the Elysée.

While uncertainty hung over the future of the Macronist group RDPI (19 members), orphaned by the death of its influential president François Patriat this summer, its representative Xavier Iacovelli assured that it would maintain itself.