Mondial 2026 : L'économiste qui a prédit le vainqueur à 100 % depuis 2014 dévoile son nouveau favori
When Paul the Octopus correctly predicted all of Germany's results at the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, he was hailed worldwide as an oracle. Since then, a German economist has managed to surpass the famous cephalopod. According to an article published by BBC Sport, Joachim Klement relies on a complex predictive model that has allowed him to predict the World Cup winner with 100% accuracy since the 2014 edition. If his statistical prophecy comes true once again, the Netherlands will lift the trophy this July, marking the fourth consecutive success of his calculations.
In addition to predicting the identity of the future champion, Joachim Klement's model outlines the entire course of this 48-team tournament. BBC Sport reports that the economist notably forecasts a surprise victory for Japan over Brazil in the second round, as well as Scotland's elimination by South Korea at the same stage of the competition. His projections also estimate that England will reach the semi-finals before being eliminated by Portugal, two decades after their memorable encounter in the 2006 edition.
A mathematical exercise to highlight the irony of the predictions
For Joachim Klement, who describes himself as a pessimist and has lived in the UK for a decade, this work was never intended to avoid disappointments or generate financial gains through betting. In an interview with the BBC, he explained that his project began as an exercise to demonstrate the arrogance of economists who believe they can predict events they know nothing about. Ironically, he observes that, with a bit of luck, this type of exercise simply leads people to see you as a guru.
The pressure is mounting on the strategist at the investment bank Panmure Liberum. After his first prediction came true with Germany's victory in 2014, Klement thought a repeat in 2018 would prove the role of chance. Fate, however, proved him right a second time with France's triumph in 2018, and then a third time with Argentina's victory in 2022. Faced with this flawless record, the economist told the BBC that the public now expects his model to be completely unbeatable going forward.
While success is partly based on measurable systemic factors such as a country's population, wealth, climate, or FIFA ranking, Joachim Klement nevertheless urges readers to exercise caution. In an interview with BBC Sport, he reminds readers that these figures represent only a fraction of the reality, the other half relying solely on luck. According to him, every match between top teams depends on entirely unpredictable details, whether it's the players' form on the day, a refereeing decision, or a ball hitting the post before going in.
With the June kickoff approaching, this mathematical model offers a welcome distraction amidst crises and world wars, a sense of levity the economist hopes to share with his readers. In his own office, the excitement is palpable, and his colleagues regularly ask him whether the anterior cruciate ligament injury suffered by Dutch midfielder Xavi Simons might affect his calculations. Klement concludes his interview with the BBC by humorously recounting that several of his staff have placed bets on the Netherlands, and that should the team be eliminated early, he will be forced to prioritize working from home.
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