Ouattara et les « mutations mondiales » : le discours est prêt, la souveraineté l’est-elle ?
“Our success will depend on our ability to anticipate global changes, adapt to them, and transform them into opportunities.” These are the words of Alassane Ouattara. Fine words. But let’s ask the real question: Who is truly anticipating these changes, and with what resources?
THE The diagnosis is accurate. The world is being reshaped before our very eyes: trade wars, redefined value chains, a race for critical minerals, and increasingly tight financing. In this context, Africa can no longer simply stand by and watch history unfold. On this point, the Ivorian president is right, and Côte d'Ivoire is putting forward a first step: local processing of cocoa and cashew nuts, to retain added value within the country instead of exporting raw materials. This is the right approach. It will have to be judged on the numbers, not on the rhetoric.
Anticipating, yes, but with what margin for maneuver?
Because anticipating future developments requires freedom of action. Yet the continent too often remains bound by rules written elsewhere: financial ratings, IMF conditionalities, trade agreements negotiated from a position of weakness. Cocoa illustrates this: Côte d'Ivoire is the world's leading producer, but the price is set in London and New York. One cannot turn a transformation into an opportunity when one does not control either the tools or the timing.
The Ivorian paradox
Ouattara has been in power since 2011. The man who advocates adaptation is also the manager of continuity: strong growth on paper, but unequal distribution, a youth population searching for jobs, and a persistent dependence on external financing. Even over the currency, sovereignty remains partial. The 2019-2020 reform ended the mandatory deposit of half of the reserves with the French Treasury, but the fixed exchange rate with the euro and the French guarantee remain. It's difficult to talk about foresight when the monetary system remains pegged to external factors.
What Africa needs to build
This statement will only be worth as much as the institutions capable of implementing it are: a truly effective AfCFTA, factories and refineries on the continent, local capital markets, and agencies like AfCRA to regain control over credit ratings. Without these, "anticipating" is simply guessing what others will do next.
The real test
The test is not Africa's ability to adapt to the world; it has always done so, often at its own expense. The test is whether it can finally influence the rules of the game. As long as it cannot, rhetoric remains ahead of reality.
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