Gambia: A united opposition against Jammeh, but divided against Barrow

Gambians will elect their president on December 5. Candidacies will be submitted to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) from November 3 to 14. Parliamentary elections will follow on April 10, 2027.

The election is decided in a single round, by simple majority. A fragmented opposition therefore directly benefits the incumbent president.

Barrow, or the succession without a dauphin

In power since 2017, Adama Barrow is seeking a third term under the NPP banner. His candidacy is legal under the 1997 Constitution, but it has drawn sharp criticism. The proposed 2020 constitutional amendment, which would have barred him from running, has been shelved, even by his own party.

The man brought to power by the 2016 coalition, on the promise of term limits and a three-year transition, has become the very target of criticism. The NPP has no designated successor: Barrow is Barrow himself.

An opposition divided into three blocs

Gambia First Coalition: Ousainou Darboe (UDP) is its leader. At 78 years old, he is launching a new candidacy.

Coalition 2026 Talib Bensouda, mayor of Kanifing and leader of UNITE, was nominated as candidate following a selection process between several hopefuls.

Team Gambia Grand Coalition 2026 Founded on September 12 and coordinated by Halifa Sallah and Sidia Jatta, it must choose its candidate between October 17 and 30.

None of these blocs are yielding. Meanwhile, the government is poaching from the opposition: Essa Faal's APP-Sobeyaa and Mama Kandeh's GDC have joined the presidential alliance. Barrow signed the agreement with Faal at State House. He emphasized the strength of his new recruits (Kandeh, 12%; Faal, 3%) and stated his desire for an election without opposition. Darboe, however, refuses to join the NPP alliance.

The precedent that haunts everyone

In 2016, seven parties united behind a single candidate brought down Yahya Jammeh. In 2021, coalition talks failed, and Darboe finished with just over 27%. Everyone knows the lesson: egos, the question of leadership, and the transition program have already killed unity once; they're doing it again.

However, the following remain to be seen: the outcome of the Team Gambia process (October 17-30), and a possible withdrawal before November 14, especially between Darboe and Bensouda.

Unlike Senegal, Gambia does not have a second round to correct mistakes: everything is decided before the vote.

This is the truth that many African opposition parties refuse to hear: too many believe that simply rejecting the incumbent is enough to win. Without a common candidate or a shared platform, they hand the presidency on a silver platter. Gambia, which ousted Jammeh through unity, risks re-electing Barrow through division.