At least two thousand deaths, mostly elderly people often living at home, representing a jump of 30% in one week: destined to rise, this first assessment of the exceptional heatwave in June shows that two regions, Île-de-France and Pays de la Loire, were particularly affected.

During the week of June 22, the Public Health France agency reported, in a report published on Friday, "an increase of +29.1%, corresponding to 2,025 additional deaths compared to the previous week".

These figures are published as France is barely recovering from the heatwave at the end of June, exceptional in its duration and intensity, with the three hottest days ever recorded.

A health assessment is all the more eagerly awaited given that this heatwave is already considered more intense, climatically speaking, than the one in 2003 that killed some 15,000 people in France, mostly elderly. In terms of duration, it is similar: the June episode lasted 14 days, compared to 16 in 2003, Météo-France announced on Friday.

At the European level, this heat wave would have been virtually impossible in June without climate change, according to climatologists from World Weather Attribution.

The issue took a political turn at the beginning of the week. Accusing the government of inaction, the Greens put forward a death toll of 10,000 for the June episode, prompting a strong denial from Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

In this sensitive context, Friday's figures will not provide a definitive answer, even if health authorities are confident that the number of deaths this time is lower than in 2003.

Regarding mortality, the June heatwave "is not comparable to the 2003 episode," insisted Health Minister Stéphanie Rist on TF1. During a press briefing, Public Health France, for its part, cautioned that "one must be careful in making hasty comparisons between two events that are, after all, quite different."

The figure of 2,025 deaths, which comes in addition to the approximately 300 additional deaths already recorded by Public Health France for the less intense heat wave at the end of May, is, in fact, only a very partial snapshot.

It is based solely on electronic death certificates, which account for just over 60% of all deaths, and does not yet take into account deaths recorded after heatwave days, as this can have delayed health effects on organisms.

- Data "underestimated" -

While it is not possible at this stage to certify that these additional deaths are directly related to the heat, in the absence of a major epidemic, it is difficult to consider another major probable cause of mortality.

The national health agency, which promises a more solid assessment within three weeks, therefore calls for not focusing excessively on the current estimated death toll, stressing that this data is "underestimated" and that the actual mortality will be "higher".

However, this initial assessment provides a realistic picture of mortality trends. The increase in deaths appears to have been particularly pronounced in Île-de-France and Pays de la Loire, with a jump of approximately 62% in both cases. But, due to the demographic weight of the Paris region, the effect is especially noticeable there.

As for age groups, the increase in deaths concerns almost exclusively those over 45, even though at the start of the heatwave, several healthcare workers had warned of serious cases among young adults who had exerted themselves excessively.

And "even though we have a clearly visible increase among 45-64 year olds, the number of deaths among those aged 65 and over represents the largest share," warned Public Health France.

One final point, already widely discussed by health authorities and the government, is confirmed. The increase is particularly pronounced for deaths at home, which have almost doubled (+91%) in one week. It is less pronounced in nursing homes (+37%), although Public Health France is again urging caution due to incomplete geographical coverage.

On Thursday, the Prime Minister saw in these deaths at home "the major difference compared to 2003," saying he was working on "a network of centers to protect vulnerable people." The number of deaths at home (approximately 5,000) was, however, already high in 2003.