Retrait de Kosmos Energy du projet Yakaar-Teranga : Une « victoire historique » ou un naufrage économique pour le Sénégal ?
While the authorities celebrate the transfer of the project to PETROSEN's full control as a major act of sovereignty, an analysis by research professor Serge Malou tempers this enthusiasm. For this Columbia University graduate, the departure of the American operator Kosmos Energy marks the beginning of a period of profound uncertainty. He believes the country has just traded massive investments for a mere administrative document, stating bluntly that "sovereignty without production is the sovereignty of poverty."
Serge Malou's first observation concerns the financial aspect of the withdrawal. According to him, Senegal immediately loses between 5 and 7 billion dollars in investments that Kosmos and BP were to inject into the development of the gas field. Without this capital, the gas would remain inaccessible 2,500 meters below the sea. By inheriting blocked wells rather than ready-to-use infrastructure, the country would be back to square one. Malou emphasizes that "Senegal is inheriting blocked wells, not infrastructure. We're starting from scratch, just like in 2012. Ten years wasted."
Beyond the infrastructure, an entire development timeline is collapsing. While production was initially targeted for 2027, the most optimistic projections now point to 2032. This five-year delay would mean, according to the analysis, that tax revenues will remain at zero for another decade. Meanwhile, the state budget would continue to be drained to subsidize energy costs.
A cascade of social and industrial consequences
The impact on employment and the purchasing power of Senegalese people is expected to be devastating, according to the author. The project was initially projected to generate approximately 3,000 skilled jobs for local engineers and technicians. With the cessation of operations, these opportunities vanish, leaving a trained youth facing unemployment. Even more serious, the cost of electricity will not see the long-awaited decrease. The expert warns that "the price of electricity will not fall before 2032. The direct consequence: factories are fleeing, the informal sector is booming, and purchasing power is being squeezed."
This situation would also create a climate of mistrust for future international investors. Following BP's departure in 2023 and Kosmos's in 2026, the signal sent to financial markets is considered worrying. Serge Malou believes that Senegal is becoming a complex market, forcing the state to make greater concessions in the future to attract new partners, because "the message sent to the market is clear: Senegal is changing the rules and is not accepting profitable models."
The challenge of exploitation by PETROSEN
Finally, the analysis questions the actual capacity of the national company PETROSEN to operate an offshore gas field of this scale on its own. The expert compares this takeover to "a diploma without a job: beautiful on the wall, useless in real life," arguing that the company possesses neither the drilling vessels nor the lines of credit necessary to raise the billions of dollars required.
In conclusion, Serge Malou firmly rejects the idea that April 22, 2026, represents a victory date. He sees it instead as a missed opportunity for industrial development, where Senegal sacrificed tangible gas and imminent revenue for "a PDF license and ten years of promises." The true cost will not be reflected in ministerial decrees, but, according to him, will be evident in the electricity bills of Senegalese households by 2030.
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